Publications & Technical Reports | |
R275 | |
Causal Inference from an EM-Learned Causal Model
Anna K. Raichev, Jin Tian, and Rina Dechter
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Abstract
The standard approach to answering a causal query (e.g., P(Y|do(X)) when given
a causal diagram and observational data is to generate an estimand, which is an
expression over the observable variables, if the query can be answered uniquely.
The estimand is then evaluated from the observational data. In this paper, we
propose an alternative paradigm for answering causal queries. We suggest learning
the full causal model from the observational data given the diagram. Once a full
model is available, Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGM) algorithms developed
over the past three decades can be applied to answer the query. We present this idea
and provide analysis, demonstrating that this approach can be far more effective
than the estimand-based approach with plug-in estimation, when the diagram has
a low induced-width. Our analysis and experiments illustrate the potential of this
approach over a collection of synthetically generated causal models.
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